It was two months ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard question to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
